TY - JOUR

T1 - Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe

AU - García-León, David

AU - Casanueva, Ana

AU - Standardi, Gabriele

AU - Burgstall, Annkatrin

AU - Flouris, Andreas D

AU - Nybo, Lars

N1 - © 2021. The Author(s).

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse the present and future economic damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, we focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared our findings to the historical period 1981-2010. In the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3-0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981-2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute.

AB - Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse the present and future economic damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, we focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared our findings to the historical period 1981-2010. In the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3-0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981-2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute.

KW - Faculty of Science

KW - Extreme heat

KW - Heat stress

KW - Impact

KW - Working capacity

KW - Productivity

KW - Economic output

KW - Europe

KW - Climate change

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z

DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34608159

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

M1 - 5807

ER -