Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

  • Seth D. Baum
  • Stuart Armstrong
  • Timoteus Ekenstedt
  • Olle Häggström
  • Robin Hanson
  • Karin Kuhlemann
  • Maas, Matthijs Michiel
  • James D. Miller
  • Markus Salmela
  • Anders Sandberg
  • Kaj Sotala
  • Phil Torres
  • Alexey Turchin
  • Roman V. Yampolskiy
Purpose: This paper formalizes long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist.
Approach: We focus on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings: Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation, and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Value: Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftForesight
Vol/bind21
Udgave nummer1
Sider (fra-til)53-83
Antal sider21
ISSN1463-6689
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2019

ID: 202508475