Growth and Poverty: A Pragmatic Assessment and Future Prospects
Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Book chapter › Research › peer-review
This chapter considers the evolution of welfare of the Tanzanian population using a multi-dimensional approach. It also employs a detailed economy-wide model of the Tanzanian economy to explore growth and monetary poverty reduction scenarios from 2007 to 2015. This approach permits assessment of the coherence of observed trends in macroeconomic variables and projects consumption poverty outcomes to 2015. In the multi-dimensional approach, we find that real gains have been achieved. On monetary poverty, our model broadly reproduces key macroeconomic features of the past eight years. We find that published consumption poverty reductions for 2007 to 2011/12 from the most recent assessment fall within a reasonable to optimistic range. And, the simulations generate broader based growth across the income distribution compared with the recent assessment. Looking forward, the simulations from 2012 to 2105 project a faster rate of poverty reduction due to more favourable terms of trade.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Tanzania : The Path to Prosperity |
Editors | Christopher S. Adam, Paul Collier, Benno Ndulu |
Publisher | Oxford University Press |
Publication date | 2017 |
Pages | 190-213 |
Chapter | 9 |
ISBN (Print) | 9780198704812 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2017 |
- Faculty of Social Sciences - Growth, Poverty, multi-dimensional approach to welfare, economy-wide modelling, macroeconomic simulations
Research areas
ID: 164384861