The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads

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The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads. / Engelhardt, Robin; Hendricks, Vincent F.; Stærk-Østergaard, Jacob.

In: arXiv, 12.08.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research

Harvard

Engelhardt, R, Hendricks, VF & Stærk-Østergaard, J 2020, 'The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads', arXiv. <http://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.05203v1>

APA

Engelhardt, R., Hendricks, V. F., & Stærk-Østergaard, J. (2020). The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads. arXiv. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.05203v1

Vancouver

Engelhardt R, Hendricks VF, Stærk-Østergaard J. The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads. arXiv. 2020 Aug 12.

Author

Engelhardt, Robin ; Hendricks, Vincent F. ; Stærk-Østergaard, Jacob. / The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads. In: arXiv. 2020.

Bibtex

@article{081b7a22bce642b79fa87ed17890a62d,
title = "The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads",
abstract = " Online discussion threads are important means for individual decision-making and for aggregating collective judgments, e.g. the `wisdom of crowds'. Empirical investigations of the wisdom of crowds are currently ambivalent about the role played by social information. While some findings suggest that social information undermines crowd accuracy due to correlated judgment errors, others show that accuracy improves. We investigate experimentally the accuracy of threads in which participants make magnitude estimates of varying difficulty while seeing a varying number of previous estimates. We demonstrate that, for difficult tasks, seeing preceding estimates aids the wisdom of crowds. If, however, participants only see extreme estimates, wisdom quickly turns into folly. Using a Gaussian Mixture Model, we assign a persuadability score to each participant and show that persuadability increases with task difficulty and with the amount of social information provided. In filtered threads, we see an increasing gap between highly persuadable participants and skeptics. ",
keywords = "cs.SI, physics.soc-ph, J.4",
author = "Robin Engelhardt and Hendricks, {Vincent F.} and Jacob St{\ae}rk-{\O}stergaard",
year = "2020",
month = aug,
day = "12",
language = "English",
journal = "arXiv",
publisher = "arxiv.org",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Wisdom and Persuadability of Threads

AU - Engelhardt, Robin

AU - Hendricks, Vincent F.

AU - Stærk-Østergaard, Jacob

PY - 2020/8/12

Y1 - 2020/8/12

N2 - Online discussion threads are important means for individual decision-making and for aggregating collective judgments, e.g. the `wisdom of crowds'. Empirical investigations of the wisdom of crowds are currently ambivalent about the role played by social information. While some findings suggest that social information undermines crowd accuracy due to correlated judgment errors, others show that accuracy improves. We investigate experimentally the accuracy of threads in which participants make magnitude estimates of varying difficulty while seeing a varying number of previous estimates. We demonstrate that, for difficult tasks, seeing preceding estimates aids the wisdom of crowds. If, however, participants only see extreme estimates, wisdom quickly turns into folly. Using a Gaussian Mixture Model, we assign a persuadability score to each participant and show that persuadability increases with task difficulty and with the amount of social information provided. In filtered threads, we see an increasing gap between highly persuadable participants and skeptics.

AB - Online discussion threads are important means for individual decision-making and for aggregating collective judgments, e.g. the `wisdom of crowds'. Empirical investigations of the wisdom of crowds are currently ambivalent about the role played by social information. While some findings suggest that social information undermines crowd accuracy due to correlated judgment errors, others show that accuracy improves. We investigate experimentally the accuracy of threads in which participants make magnitude estimates of varying difficulty while seeing a varying number of previous estimates. We demonstrate that, for difficult tasks, seeing preceding estimates aids the wisdom of crowds. If, however, participants only see extreme estimates, wisdom quickly turns into folly. Using a Gaussian Mixture Model, we assign a persuadability score to each participant and show that persuadability increases with task difficulty and with the amount of social information provided. In filtered threads, we see an increasing gap between highly persuadable participants and skeptics.

KW - cs.SI

KW - physics.soc-ph

KW - J.4

M3 - Journal article

JO - arXiv

JF - arXiv

ER -

ID: 247112884