Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
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Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. / Liu, Bing; Martre, Pierre; Ewert, Frank; Porter, John R.; Challinor, Andy J; Müller, Christoph; Ruane, Alex C; Waha, Katharina; Thorburn, Peter J; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Ahmed, Mukhtar; Balkovič, Juraj; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Bindi, Marco; Cammarano, Davide; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Dumont, Benjamin; Espadafor, Mónica; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Ferrise, Roberto; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Gao, Yujing; Horan, Heidi; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Izaurralde, Roberto C; Jones, Curtis D; Kassie, Belay T; Kersebaum, Kurt C; Klein, Christian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Maiorano, Andrea; Minoli, Sara; Montesino San Martin, Manuel; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Rötter, Reimund P; Semenov, Mikhail A; Stöckle, Claudio; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Van der Velde, Marijn; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Enli; Webber, Heidi; Wolf, Joost; Xiao, Liujun; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold.
In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, No. 4, 04.2019, p. 1428-1444.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
AU - Liu, Bing
AU - Martre, Pierre
AU - Ewert, Frank
AU - Porter, John R.
AU - Challinor, Andy J
AU - Müller, Christoph
AU - Ruane, Alex C
AU - Waha, Katharina
AU - Thorburn, Peter J
AU - Aggarwal, Pramod K
AU - Ahmed, Mukhtar
AU - Balkovič, Juraj
AU - Basso, Bruno
AU - Biernath, Christian
AU - Bindi, Marco
AU - Cammarano, Davide
AU - De Sanctis, Giacomo
AU - Dumont, Benjamin
AU - Espadafor, Mónica
AU - Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan
AU - Ferrise, Roberto
AU - Garcia-Vila, Margarita
AU - Gayler, Sebastian
AU - Gao, Yujing
AU - Horan, Heidi
AU - Hoogenboom, Gerrit
AU - Izaurralde, Roberto C
AU - Jones, Curtis D
AU - Kassie, Belay T
AU - Kersebaum, Kurt C
AU - Klein, Christian
AU - Koehler, Ann-Kristin
AU - Maiorano, Andrea
AU - Minoli, Sara
AU - Montesino San Martin, Manuel
AU - Naresh Kumar, Soora
AU - Nendel, Claas
AU - O'Leary, Garry J
AU - Palosuo, Taru
AU - Priesack, Eckart
AU - Ripoche, Dominique
AU - Rötter, Reimund P
AU - Semenov, Mikhail A
AU - Stöckle, Claudio
AU - Streck, Thilo
AU - Supit, Iwan
AU - Tao, Fulu
AU - Van der Velde, Marijn
AU - Wallach, Daniel
AU - Wang, Enli
AU - Webber, Heidi
AU - Wolf, Joost
AU - Xiao, Liujun
AU - Zhang, Zhao
AU - Zhao, Zhigan
AU - Zhu, Yan
AU - Asseng, Senthold
PY - 2019/4
Y1 - 2019/4
N2 - Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
AB - Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14542
DO - 10.1111/gcb.14542
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 30536680
VL - 25
SP - 1428
EP - 1444
JO - Global Change Biology
JF - Global Change Biology
SN - 1354-1013
IS - 4
ER -
ID: 212459646