The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change
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The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change. / Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart; Becker, Ute; Bruun, Hans Henrik.
In: Ecography, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2015, p. 221-230.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change
AU - Swab, Rebecca Marie
AU - Regan, Helen M.
AU - Matthies, Diethart
AU - Becker, Ute
AU - Bruun, Hans Henrik
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate “winner” overall, coupling it the model with a population model incorporating changes in demography and small-scale habitat suitability changes at smaller scales resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundances due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.
AB - Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate “winner” overall, coupling it the model with a population model incorporating changes in demography and small-scale habitat suitability changes at smaller scales resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundances due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.
KW - Faculty of Science
KW - population dynamics
KW - climate change
KW - species distribution modelling
U2 - 10.1111/ecog.00585
DO - 10.1111/ecog.00585
M3 - Journal article
VL - 38
SP - 221
EP - 230
JO - Ecography
JF - Ecography
SN - 0906-7590
IS - 3
ER -
ID: 132675708