This thesis aims to study alternatives to biodiesel industry in Brazil, for 2030, taking in
account the sustainability dimensions, namely economic, environmental, ecological, social,
national and international politics, territorial, cultural, and technological, through the
development of scenarios. In order to carry on this work, it was necessary to develop a
cross-disciplinary research, since sustainability requires a long run vision and a
comprehensive approach.
Brazil is a large country (851 Mha), with soil and weather conditions that are suitable to
produce oilseeds, and available land for agriculture and pasture. Thus, a simulation, using
linear programming models, was made in order to verify the alternatives of feedstock to
produce biodiesel. It was observed that it is possible to decentralize the market, reduce land
use, and regionalize production, making better use of the availability of existing oil and waste
today.
A methodological discussion was also necessary to include sustainable dimensions on
the scenario methods. Therefore, the environment, economics, technology, social, territorial,
national and international institutional, cultural and political aspects were considered to
identify the driving forces to develop the scenario storylines. This proposition was tested in
an in-depth interview with the biodiesel market stakeholders.
Based on the findings of the two approaches, the simulations and the interviews, it was
possible to obtain future alternatives, where the biodiesel production chain could be a
catalyst for environmental improvement and social inclusion as well as being economically
viable and contribute to energy security. The set of four scenarios for the biodiesel industry in
Brazil, for 2030, was built as the final result of the work. They are: a) Business as usual
(BAU) - considering the continuation of the current industry dynamics; b) Step-by-step
(SBS), bringing sustainability to environmental gains, social and regional integration. It is
based on environment conservation and better use of degraded and marginal lands; c)
Abundance (ABC) that takes advantage of technological breakthrough added to
environmental and regional bias on the biodiesel production; and d) Scarcity (SCR) -
representing a deterioration of the current situation, with little environmental care, without
recovering of degraded lands, and few technological advances in biodiesel production.
The SBS and ABC scenarios show alternatives for the biodiesel industry that includes
the sustainable dimensions. However, the other scenarios show possibilities that are also
plausible. A Delphi survey assessed the coherency and plausibility of the scenarios. ABC
scenario – was evaluated as more coherent and plausible than the SCR scenario. It may
suggest that it is easier to believe in a technological breakthrough than the climate change
consequences.