Retrospective estimation of diabetes incjdence from information in a prevalent population and historical mortality

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • Niels Keiding
  • Claus Holst
  • Anders Green

If the distribution of onset age of disease in a well-defined prevalent (crosssectional) population of patients is known, disease incidence rates specific for age and calendar time period may be estimated, assuming known mortality rates and a dosed population. This paper develops a method of estimation, illustrates this method on Danish diabetes data, and discusses tts general applicability. The prevalent population of diabetic subjects in Fyn County on July 1, 1973 was ascertained from prescriptions, and information on disease onset was obtained from the patients' medical records. In this study only patients with onset of disease before or at age 30 years were studied. The mortality of diabetic subjects in Denmark was estimated from retrospective hospttal data covering the period since 1933, and historical age-specific population sizes of Fyn County were obtained from census data. The incidence of diabetes increases wtth calendar time and with age for most cohorts. The variation with age for a fixed calendar year is more complicated, however, usually displaying a local maximum at about the age of puberty and a higher inddence at the upper end of the studied age range.

Original languageEnglish
JournalAmerican Journal of Epidemiology
Volume130
Issue number3
Pages (from-to)588-600
Number of pages13
ISSN0002-9262
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 1989

    Research areas

  • Diabetes mellitus

ID: 202334239